Admissions lottery study by Michael Bastedo cited in Wall Street Journal
A forthcoming paper on admissions lotteries by professors Michael Bastedo and Dominque Baker (Southern Methodist University) was cited in the Wall Street Journal article “The SAT and ACT Have Issues. Here Are Three Ideas to Replace the College Admissions Tests.”
Journalist Melissa Korn discusses three ideas for replacing the SAT and ACT in college admissions: relying more heavily on high school grades, designing a better standardized test, or holding an admissions lottery. Korn briefly analyzes each strategy.
The lottery method of admissions would involve choosing applicants randomly from a pool of qualified students, either based on a minimum GPA or GPA and other criteria. The number of qualified applicants at selective schools far exceeds the spaces available so some have suggested leaving it up to chance.
Bastedo says, “Although many people are trumpeting admissions lotteries as a way to improve racial equity, we find lotteries would actually greatly harm the enrollment of minoritized students.”
Bastedo and Baker have run thousands of simulations for a lottery at selective colleges, and say the approach on its own doesn't create a more diverse entering class. The admitted classes of a large number of lotteries, averaged together, will reflect the applicant pool, says Baker. But in a given year, even if 10% of the applicant pool consists of Black candidates, they could still make up just 1% of the class.
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